Canadian Partisan Traits
To compare with the YouGov MRP, I worked out all the census attribute proportions for every riding. And I put all the thousands of variables in a sheet, and correlated them with 3 variables:
- Conservative Voteshare (2025 Projected)
- Liberal Voteshare (2025 Projected)
- Conservative-Liberal Swing (2021-2025 Projected)
You can see all the data below, but it’s a bit messy. So I have summarised it here for those curious.
One thing I want to point out, is something called the ecological fallacy. Basically it means the people of a riding may not represent the individuals. For instance, in the American South, there is a sizeable Black population and a sizeable Republican population. So if you correlated the two, might find a relationship between the two. However, southern Black voters in America tend not actually to vote Republican.
Top 5 Conservative Traits (2025)
Ranking | Most Conservative Traits | Least Conservative Traits |
|---|---|---|
1 | Being ethnically German | Not speaking English at work |
2 | Speaking English | Speaking French |
3 | Being ethnically Norwegian | Living in an apartment |
4 | Being married | Renting |
5 | Having 4 or more bedrooms | Having 2 or less bedrooms |
Top 5 Liberal Traits (2025)
Ranking | Most Liberal Traits | Least Liberal Traits |
|---|---|---|
1 | Studying Humanities | Highest qualification apprenticeship |
2 | Studying Social Sciences | Studying agriculture, natural resources and conservation (farming related) |
3 | Studying mathematics | Commuting by car, truck or van |
4 | Using public transport | Studying mechanics or to be a technician |
5 | Being a postgraduate | Working in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting |
Top 10 Traits Swinging Conservative this election
Ranking | Conservative Swinging Trait |
|---|---|
1 | Asylum Claimant (note ecological fallacy) |
2 | Recent immigrant |
3 | Speaks English as a second language |
4 | 18-24 years old |
5 | Have children |
6 | Being ethnically South Asian |
7 | Being religiously Hindu |
8 | Being religiously Muslim |
9 | Being a visible minority |
10 | Coming from a multigenerational household |
Top 10 Traits Swinging Liberal this election
Ranking | Liberal Swinging Trait |
|---|---|
1 | Speaking English or French |
2 | Not being religious / being secular |
3 | Having no children |
4 | Living in a 2 person household |
5 | Not being a visible minority |
6 | Living in acceptable/suitable housing |
7 | Being ethnically Northern European |
8 | Earning more than $100,000 a year |
9 | Not being an immigrant |
10 | Having low housing costs |
And here is the full dataset!
